October 10, 2025

Written by: Ryan Smith, Associate Portfolio Manager, with contributions from Ryan Kelly, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer

Stock Market

September has historically been the worst month for stocks, averaging a return of -2% over the last 10 years. However, markets increased to record highs this September as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rose 5.47% and 3.64%, respectively. Information Technology (+7.21%) and Communication Services (+5.53%) led the S&P’s increase over the month, while Materials (-2.31%) and Consumer Staples (-1.82%) were the lowest performing sectors. Asian stock indices were largely positive as well, with the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) rising 7.64% and the Nikkei (Japan) up 5.82%. In European markets, the FTSE 100 (UK) returned 1.83% and the DAX (Germany) declined 0.09%.

Bond Market

Bonds prices rose and yields generally fell across the curve as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% in September. As measured by the Bloomberg US Agg Bond Index, bond prices rose 1.09% last month and are up 6.13% year-to-date. Bonds have now returned an annualized 4.82% over the past 3 years, but are still negative for the last 5 years.

The yield curve flattened over the month, with the 10, 20, and 30-year US Treasury yields declining 0.8%, 0.17%, and 0.20%, respectively. The market is still pricing in two more rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 92.5% chance of a cut at the 10/29 meeting and a 79.7% chance of another in December.

Commodities

Gold rose to over $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time ever, indicating a flight to the alternative asset upon uncertainty in the US and global economies. Despite gold being a safe-haven asset, it has acted more like a growth stock this year with gold futures up 51.32% year-to-date. Additionally, silver futures have risen 64.89% this year climbing to $50/ounce.

Oil prices fell in September and are forecasted to decline further with supply outpacing demand. This month, WTI and Brent crude futures declined 1.72% and 1.29%, respectively, and both have fallen over 11% this year. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude is estimated to fall from averages of $69/barrel to $52/barrel in 2026. Further, oil reserves are estimated to rise around 2.6 million barrels/day per the EIA. Easing tensions in the Middle East could further send oil prices lower. This week, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal that includes the release of many prisoners/hostages, marking an important step towards ending the war. However, fears of production interruptions loom with possible sanctions placed due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Employment

Currently, we do not have a September jobs report due to the government shutdown, which includes suspension of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who produces the report. However, the Carlyle Group, a global asset manager with $465 billion under management, released its own report on employment this week. It revealed a sharp decline in job growth with an estimated 17,000 jobs added last month, significantly lower than the 54,000 estimated. It is important to note, however, that estimates can vary based on the data collection/survey methodology, sample size, and seasonal adjustments. For example, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) estimated that private job growth declined by 32,000, while Revelio Labs estimated it increased by 60,000.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target range in September by one quarter point, or 0.25%, which is the first rate cut since December of 2024. This was largely anticipated by the market with elevated concerns surrounding the labor market and received little dissent, as the FOMC voted 11 to 1 on the decision. Nonfarm payroll gains have slowed and the unemployment rate, although low, has ticked up in recent months. The Fed will meet later this month on 10/29 where they will likely cut rates another quarter point. However, they will likely be making their decision without two pieces of important economic data: nonfarm payrolls and CPI for September. According to a Bloomberg article, the BLS has recalled its staff to produce the September CPI report by the end of the month; however, it has yet to determine if this will be done before the Fed’s meeting.

Economic Growth

Economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of final goods and services produced in the economy, rose 3.8% in Q2, the highest quarterly increase since Q3 of 2023. Driving the quarterly increase in GDP were decreases in imports, which reduces GDP in the equation, and an increase in consumer spending that increases GDP. Below is the GDP equation for visualization:

GDP = C + I + G +(X-M)

Where:

C = consumer spending (i.e. consumption)

I = investment spending

G = government spending

X-M = net exports (exports – imports)

Sources:

Bloomberg – CRVF – US Treasury Actives Curve 7/31/2025 – 8/29/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – INDU, SPX, NDX, FTSE, Nikkei, Dax – 1-Month

Bloomberg – IMAP – SPX Index – Groups – YTD

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sp-500-just-did-something-first-time-2010-history-says-stock-market-will-do-next

https://www.reuters.com/business/carlyle-releases-shadow-labor-report-showing-subdued-us-hiring-september-2025-10-07/

https://adpemploymentreport.com/

https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from LFG Wealth Partners, LLC. For more information about LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.

S&P 500 – Considered the most widely accepted benchmark for US large cap equities, the S&P 500 index includes 500 notable companies listed in the US and captures approximately 80% of the total publicly traded US stock market capitalization.

Nasdaq – A broad-based stock index comprised of US companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Since it opened 1971, a larger percentage of technology stocks have decided to list on the Nasdaq, rather than the NYSE. While the S&P 500 is currently over 34% information technology stocks, the Nasdaq is currently over 62%, which is why many investors use it as a gauge of US tech stock performance.

FTSE 100 – The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 – A price-weighted index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the Nikkei tracks the performance of the leading 225 companies in Japan.

DAX – The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue-chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Hang Seng – Established in July of 1964, the Hang Seng Index is a free-float (i.e., shares available to trade) market capitalization weighted index of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. This index is comprised of four distinct sub-indices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties.

Brent crude – one of the two major oil benchmarks, Brent is extracted from oil fields in the North Sea and is “light” and “sweet.” Light or heavy oil is classified based on its density, and sweet or sour oil is measured by its sulfur content.

WTI crude – the second major oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is extracted in the United States, primarily in Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana.