November 10, 2025

Written by: Ryan Smith, Associate Portfolio Manager, with contributions from Ryan Kelly, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer

Stock Market

Fears of a tech bubble, resurrected trade tensions, and a continued government shutdown did not stop domestic equities from ending October in the green. The Nasdaq led the way up 4.72%, followed by the S&P 500 and Dow, which both rose over 2% for the month. Information Technology (+6.20%) was the highest-performing sector in the market for a second-straight month, followed by Health Care (+3.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (+2.36%). International stock indices were mixed during the month. The Nikkei 225 rose 16.64%, the FTSE 100 and DAX rose 4.09% and 0.32%, respectively, and the Hang Seng declined 3.47%.

Bond Market

Bonds rose over the month, but at a slower pace than in September. As measured by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, bond prices rose 0.62% in October and are up 6.86% year-to-date. Bonds have now returned an annualized 5.61% over the past 3 years but are still negative for the last 5 years. Treasury yields fell along the curve, with short-term yields falling more than long-term yields due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. One- and three-month treasuries fell 0.19% and 0.12%, while the 2- and 10-year yields dropped 0.035% and 0.073%.

Commodities/Cryptocurrencies

Gold continued its rally in October, reaching as high as 4,356.30, but began losing steam towards the end of the month closing at 4,002.92 on 10/31. Gold is up a remarkable 52% YTD and the recent rally pushed it ahead of the S&P over the last 5 years for a few days this month.

Oil prices declined in October as supply continues to surpass demand. Brent futures (January contract) fell 1.30% over the month, while WTI futures (December contract) fell further 1.58%. According to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, Brent crude is forecast to fall to an average of $54 per barrel in Q1 of 2026. Consequently, the EIA is also estimating that gasoline prices fall under $3.00/gallon on average next year.

Cryptocurrencies fell in October. Bitcoin declined over the month, falling to $109,428.01 on 10/31, which is a 4.55% drop from the end of September and a 12.64% drop from its high on 10/6 of $122,260.81. Ethereum and Solana declined 8.01% and 10.98%, respectively.

Employment

With the government shutdown entering its sixth week, the longest in US history, there has been no release of September or October employment reports, which are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In lieu, the focus moves to the ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by ADP each month and is based on private payroll data of over 26 million US employees. The October release indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs, higher than the 29,000 decline from September as well as the expected 32,000 increase. The service industry led the gain in October, specifically in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+47,000) and Education and Health Care (+25,000). This gain was partially offset by losses in Information Services (-17,000) and Professional and Business service (-15,000). Last Thursday, however, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported job cuts for October of 153,074, which is an 183% increase from September and up 175% from a year ago.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target range in October by one quarter point, or 0.25%, following last month’s 0.25% cut, in support of their dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Both cuts were expected by the market as employment gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up slightly. The Fed will have their last meeting of 2025 on December 10^th. According to the CME Group, there is a 71% chance of another 0.25% rate cut. This probability is subject to change with the release of economic data and changing expectations. Although late due to the shutdown, the BLS released the September CPI report (0.3% MoM) mainly due to its use as a benchmark for the cost of living adjustment, or COLA, for social security payments.

Sources:

Bloomberg – COMP – SPX, CCMP, INDU, NKY, UKX, DAX 9/30/2025 – 10/31/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – GOLDS, SPX 10/30/2020 – 10/31/2025

Bloomberg – CRVF – US Treasury Actives Curve 9/30/2025 – 10/31/2025

Bloomberg – IMAP – SPX Index – Groups – YTD

Bloomberg – COMP – BRENT CRUDE FUTR JAN26 vs. WTI CRUDE FUTR DEC25 – 9/30/2025 – 10/31/2025

Bloomberg – HP – XBT (Bitcoin/USD), XET (Ethereum/USD), XSO (Solana/USD) – 9/30/2025 – 10/31/2025

https://adpemploymentreport.com/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colasummary.html

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/layoffs-us-october-surge-two-decade-high-challenger-data-shows-2025-11-06/

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eia-raises-us-oil-output-forecast-says-oversupply-will-weigh-prices-2025-11-12/

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from LFG Wealth Partners, LLC. For more information about LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.

S&P 500 – Considered the most widely accepted benchmark for US large cap equities, the S&P 500 index includes 500 notable companies listed in the US and captures approximately 80% of the total publicly traded US stock market capitalization.

Nasdaq – A broad-based stock index comprised of US companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Since it opened 1971, a larger percentage of technology stocks have decided to list on the Nasdaq, rather than the NYSE. While the S&P 500 is currently over 34% information technology stocks, the Nasdaq is currently over 62%, which is why many investors use it as a gauge of US tech stock performance.

FTSE 100 – The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 – A price-weighted index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the Nikkei tracks the performance of the leading 225 companies in Japan.

DAX – The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue-chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Hang Seng – Established in July of 1964, the Hang Seng Index is a free-float (i.e., shares available to trade) market capitalization weighted index of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. This index is comprised of four distinct sub-indices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties.

Brent crude – one of the two major oil benchmarks, Brent is extracted from oil fields in the North Sea and is “light” and “sweet.” Light or heavy oil is classified based on its density, and sweet or sour oil is measured by its sulfur content.

WTI crude – the second major oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is extracted in the United States, primarily in Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana.