December 15, 2025

Written by: Ryan Smith, Associate Portfolio Manager, with contributions from Ryan Kelly, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer

Stock Market

US equities experienced increased volatility in November as the 43-day government shutdown ended, tech experienced a sell-off due to rising concerns of an AI bubble, and continued uncertainty persists in the market surrounding the Fed’s rate decision this month and the path of monetary policy heading into 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 led domestic indices this month, up just 0.48% and 0.25%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.45% during the month following strong performance in October. International stocks were mixed, with the FTSE rising 0.39% and the Nikkei falling 4.12%.

Bond Market

On a relative basis, bonds outperformed stocks in November by 0.37%, as measured by the Bloomberg US Agg Total Return bond index (+0.62%) and the S&P (+0.25%). The yield curve steepened modestly over the month as short-term treasuries declined more than longer-term. The two-year treasury yield fell 8.3 basis points while the 10-year fell 6.3 basis points.

Commodities/Cryptocurrencies

Precious metals continued their rally in November near record highs. Gold ended the month at 4,239.43/ozt and rose 5.91%. Silver rose to 56.50/ozt and returned an impressive 16.04%. Year to date, gold and silver have returned 61.53% and 95.49%, respectively, both significantly outperforming the S&P 500 which has a YTD return of 17.79%.

Cryptocurrencies continued their decline in November, with Bitcoin falling to 90,914.64 equating to a 16.92% drop over the month. Solana and XRP both fell 26.43% and 12.99%, respectively, in November.

Employment

Although the government shutdown has ended, we are still lacking key employment data and further releases are being delayed. The September jobs report was released late on November 20^th in which nonfarm payroll rose by 119,000, the October jobs report will not be released, and the November report’s release is delayed until December 16^th. However, we do know from ADP’s National Employment Report that private payrolls declined by 32,000 in November primarily in small businesses. Jobs losses occurred in professional and business services (-26,000), information (-20,000), and manufacturing (-18,000). These losses were partially offset by gains in education and health services (+33,000) and leisure and hospitality (+13,000). Additionally, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported layoff plans of 71,321 in November which brings the 2025 total to 1.17 million. Although the monthly figure improved from October, the 2025 total is the highest since the COVID pandemic.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, or 0.25%, a move largely anticipated by the market but not necessarily agreed on by FOMC members. Nine members voted in favor of a quarter-point cut, while two members were against cutting and one member voted for a half-point cut. Chair Powell emphasized the difficult nature of the decision, as he could argue for both sides, but ultimately pointed at a softening labor market and elevated inflation to back their decision. The Fed has also decided to begin purchasing short-term Treasury securities, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing. This is typically implemented to spur economic activity by increasing the supply of cash reserves which reduces interest rates to encourage borrowing/lending.

Sources:

Bloomberg – COMP – SPX, CCMP, INDU, NKY, UKX, DAX 10/31/2025 – 11/28/2025

Bloomberg – CRVF – US Treasury Actives Curve 10/31/2025 – 11/28/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – GOLDS, SILV, SPX 12/31/2024 – 11/28/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – BRENT CRUDE FUTR JAN26 vs. WTI CRUDE FUTR DEC25 – 9/30/2025 – 10/31/2025

Bloomberg – HP – XBT (Bitcoin/USD), XET (Ethereum/USD), XSO (Solana/USD) – 10/31/2025 – 11/30/2025

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://adpemploymentreport.com/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-year-top-1point1-million-the-most-since-2020-when-pandemic-hit-challenger-says.html

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from LFG Wealth Partners, LLC. For more information about LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.

S&P 500 – Considered the most widely accepted benchmark for US large cap equities, the S&P 500 index includes 500 notable companies listed in the US and captures approximately 80% of the total publicly traded US stock market capitalization.

Nasdaq – A broad-based stock index comprised of US companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Since it opened 1971, a larger percentage of technology stocks have decided to list on the Nasdaq, rather than the NYSE. While the S&P 500 is currently over 34% information technology stocks, the Nasdaq is currently over 62%, which is why many investors use it as a gauge of US tech stock performance.

FTSE 100 – The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 – A price-weighted index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the Nikkei tracks the performance of the leading 225 companies in Japan.

DAX – The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue-chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Hang Seng – Established in July of 1964, the Hang Seng Index is a free-float (i.e., shares available to trade) market capitalization weighted index of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. This index is comprised of four distinct sub-indices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties.

Brent crude – one of the two major oil benchmarks, Brent is extracted from oil fields in the North Sea and is “light” and “sweet.” Light or heavy oil is classified based on its density, and sweet or sour oil is measured by its sulfur content.

WTI crude – the second major oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is extracted in the United States, primarily in Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana.

OZT (troy ounce) – the most common unit of measurement for precious metals in the industry. 1 troy ounce is equivalent to 31.1 grams, heavier than the standard ounce (28.35 grams).