January 29, 2026

Written by: Ryan Smith, Associate Portfolio Manager, with contributions from Ryan Kelly, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer

Stock Market

Stocks were mixed in December as the S&P 500 was effectively flat with a 0.06% total return and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.47%. Sector performance was led by Financials (+2.94%) and Materials (+2.01%), while Utilities (-5.31%) and Real Estate (-2.79%) were the lowest performing during the month. International stocks significantly outperformed US stocks in December as the DAX and FTSE rose 2.74% and 2.36%, respectively.

The S&P 500 returned 17.86% for the year 2025, and rallied a huge 38.64% from its low on April 8th.

Bond Market

In 2025, bonds rose 7.30% as measured by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Total Return index, their best calendar year since 2020. The Agg has returned an annualized 3.25% over the past 20 years. Over the month of December, bonds were relatively flat while falling just 0.15%. The yield curve steepened further in December, with the 1- and 3-month treasury yields falling 33 and 17 basis points (bps), respectively, and the 10-year rising 15 bps. According to the Bankrate.com 30Y Mortgage Rates Index, mortgage rates dropped from 7.25% at the end of 2024 to 6.25% at the end of 2025.

Commodities

Silver skyrocketed in December to close the year, rising 26.84% from the prior month and 147.95% from December of 2024. Although this is a win for those holding the physical commodity or exposure to it, silver’s bullish run increases price pressure on solar panel manufacturers. According to a 2024 article from APMEX, the leading exchange for precious metals, solar panels use approximately 20 grams of silver which plays an important role in producing solar power. Over 50% of silver is produced for industrial purposes, while just 11% of gold is—the rest is used for jewelry and investment. Gold did not have an equally strong month but closed December in the positive, up almost 2% and up an impressive 64.58% for the year.

Oil prices declined in December, with Brent and WTI falling 0.56% and 0.45%, respectively. For the year, the drop was substantial, 18.5% and 20%, respectively. To begin 2026, however, oil prices jumped following heightened geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela, tensions in Iran, and a massive winter storm bearing down on much of the US. Natural gas was fairly volatile in 2025, but ended the year where it started at around 3.68. Natural gas has spiked to over 6.5 in late January on increased demand for heating and disrupted supply from frozen wellheads.

Employment

The US added 50,000 non-farm payroll jobs in December, which was lower than anticipated and lower than the downward-adjusted November figure of 56,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.4% from 4.5% but remains historically low. Jobs gains occurred in food services, drinking places, health care, and social assistance, while retail trade lost jobs. Private sector employment rose by 41,000 according to ADP and hiring rose in education, health services, and leisure and hospitality.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% in December, marking its third and final rate cut of 2025. At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Based on data as of 12/31/2025, Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) model estimates at least two rate cuts by the end of 2026.

Sources:

Bloomberg – COMP – SPX, CCMP, INDU 11/28/2025 – 12/31/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – NKY, UKX, DAX – 11/28/2025 – 12/30/2025

Bloomberg – CRVF – US Treasury Actives Curve 11/28/2025 – 12/31/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – GOLDS, SILV, SPX 12/31/2024 – 12/31/2025

Bloomberg – COMP – CL1, C01 – 11/28/2025 – 12/31/2025

Bloomberg – WIRP – Pricing Date: 12/31/2025

https://learn.apmex.com/answers/how-much-silver-is-in-a-solar-panel/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/jobs-report-december-2025.html

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://adpemploymentreport.com/

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy and LFG Wealth Partners, LLC  assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from LFG Wealth Partners, LLC. For more information about LFG Wealth Partners, LLC , including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name.

S&P 500 – Considered the most widely accepted benchmark for US large cap equities, the S&P 500 index includes 500 notable companies listed in the US and captures approximately 80% of the total publicly traded US stock market capitalization.

Nasdaq – A broad-based stock index comprised of US companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Since it opened 1971, a larger percentage of technology stocks have decided to list on the Nasdaq, rather than the NYSE. While the S&P 500 is currently over 34% information technology stocks, the Nasdaq is currently over 62%, which is why many investors use it as a gauge of US tech stock performance.

FTSE 100 – The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 – A price-weighted index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the Nikkei tracks the performance of the leading 225 companies in Japan.

DAX – The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue-chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Hang Seng – Established in July of 1964, the Hang Seng Index is a free-float (i.e., shares available to trade) market capitalization weighted index of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. This index is comprised of four distinct sub-indices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties.

Brent crude – one of the two major oil benchmarks, Brent is extracted from oil fields in the North Sea and is “light” and “sweet.” Light or heavy oil is classified based on its density, and sweet or sour oil is measured by its sulfur content.

WTI crude – the second major oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is extracted in the United States, primarily in Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana.

OZT (troy ounce) – the most common unit of measurement for precious metals in the industry. 1 troy ounce is equivalent to 31.1 grams, heavier than the standard ounce (28.35 grams).